Euro 2020: England and Germany set for last-16 assembly

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Conference location: Wembley Stadium, London Date: Tuesday June 29th Start: 17:00 CEST
Cover: Watch on BBC One, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website, live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live and live text commentary on the BBC Sport website.

For the first time since the 1966 World Cup final, England will try to beat Germany in a major knockout game when they meet in Wembley in the Euro 2020 round of 16 on Tuesday.

Easing ticket restrictions means 40,000 fans will be in attendance, with both teams hoping to reach a quarter-finals in Rome against Sweden or Ukraine.

The Three Lions only progressed after a Euro knockout game.

“It really is an incredible record,” said England coach Gareth Southgate.

That win came in 1996 on penalties against Spain, a tournament in which England eventually lost to Germany on penalties in the semi-finals. That defeat is still the only time England have been beaten in a major tournament on home soil.

“We’ve been talking for the past four years that this team is not carrying the baggage from previous eras,” said Southgate. “A lot of them weren’t even born when a lot of these things happened and it’s irrelevant to them.

“It’s a real chance to make it to the quarter-finals, albeit against a team with a pedigree and experience, but it’s a game we’re looking forward to.”

If Germany loses – which they failed to do in the last seven games against England at Wembley Stadium and win five – it will be Joachim Loew’s last game as coach. He will be replaced by Hansi Flick after the tournament.

The teams had significantly different paths to the knockout round. England had a more comfortable group stage than Germany, beating Croatia and the Czech Republic – and drawing against Scotland – without conceding a goal to lead Group D.

Germany were only six minutes away from elimination, but Leon Goretzka made it to the round of 16 following a late equalizer against Hungary after losing to France and beating Portugal. All of their group games took place at home in Munich.

World Cup final 1966: Won 4-2
World Cup quarter-finals 1970: 3-2 lost after extra time
World Cup semi-finals 1990: Lost 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw
96 euro semi-finals: Lost 6-5 on penalties after a 1-1 draw
World Cup finals 2010: 4-1 lost

What are the big selection problems?

Southgate must make a decision about midfielder Mason Mount and full-back Ben Chilwell.

The couple will be available for selection on Monday evening after self-isolation is complete.

They had come into contact with Chelsea teammate and Scotland player Billy Gilmour, who tested positive for coronavirus.

“They have to travel separately to the team and have completed individual training programs this week,” said Southgate.

“The only training sessions they could do was with us when there wasn’t full team training, so they didn’t train fully with the team.

“It’s really complicated because there’s the physical periodization you want for a game like this, then there’s the tactical side and they were in another room on zoom to have to dial in.

“But they are young players who I think are doing pretty well with things. That is the decision we really have to make, whether we think what they could do will prepare them adequately for the game becomes.”

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Germany’s defender Antonio Rüdiger and midfielder Ilkay Gündogan are expected to be fit.

Chelsea’s Rüdiger (caught cold) and Manchester City’s Gündogan (head injury) missed training on Sunday, but were back in Bavaria on Monday before flying to England.

The German Football Association said the team was not allowed to train at Wembley on Monday.

Thomas Müller is expected to replace Leroy Sane after recovering from a knee injury.

Lavro’s prediction

This is one of the most ordinary German teams I’ve seen in ages, but they’re still Germany, in a knockout competition and will enjoy being at Wembley.

At the very least, they’ll be very, very hard to beat, and they might even be a really big feat.

That could come against England, who have done what they have done so far and have probably played well for 90 minutes in total at this tournament – in the first half of their games against Croatia and the Czechs.

Sadly for them, what followed what I would call staccato spells, where they stagnated in the attack and decided to sit back and relax a little, followed.

Some of this can be attributed to Gareth Southgate’s team selection as he was careful. He has some big calls to make now.

It’s going to be extremely close, but I think it’s about penalty shoot-outs – and I’m helping England get their own back this time.

Lavro’s prediction: 0-0 after extra time – England win on penalties

Does Wembley give England a key edge?

Sports analysts Gracenote give England a 68% chance of reaching the quarter-finals – and say it would be 56% if they didn’t have a home advantage.

England is the second favorite to win the tournament (15.5%) – only behind Belgium – while Germany only has a 4.2% chance.

Simon Gleave, Head of Sports Analysis said: “England was ranked eighth in the world by Gracenote at Euro 2020 but the chance of winning the tournament was estimated at 13.6% as the team had the home advantage for up to would enjoy six games.

“Before the start of the second round, England became the favorites to win Euro 2020 due to their presence on the less difficult-looking side of the draw and have been second favorite again since Belgium advanced to the next round.

“England have an extra edge in the knockout stage that no other team has. Playing at Wembley in the second round and, if they get there, in the semi-finals and the final, England’s chances of success are increased by about 12%. ”

“This is no guarantee of winning the tournament, but you have more chances now than on neutral ground.”

Match facts

head to head

  • This is the third meeting between England and Germany at the European Championship. After a 1-1 draw in the semi-finals in 1996, Germany won 6-5 on penalties before England won 1-0 in the group stage at Euro 2000.
  • This is the 13th meeting between England and Germany at Wembley Stadium. England won four of the first five such games (U1), including the 1966 World Cup final, but have been without a win in the last seven (U2, 5).
  • England and Germany met seven times in major tournaments. Both teams have won two games each with three draws, although the Germans progressed on penalties after two of those draws.

England

  • This is England’s 300th international match at Wembley Stadium and the 77th at the new location since it reopened in 2007. The Three Lions have won 187 times at this location (D73 L39) and remain in their 14 European or World Cup Finals unbeaten the stadium (W9 D5).
  • England have never won a knockout match at a European Championship in 90 minutes (U4, 2). Four games went to penalties, with England only going through once against Spain at Wembley for € 96.
  • England’s last four wins were all 1-0, as many as its previous 26 wins. The only previous year they had five 1-0 wins was in 1990, two of them at the 1990 World Cup when they reached the semi-finals.
  • Raheem Sterling has scored 14 goals in his last 19 games for England after scoring just twice in his first 45 caps. All of Sterling’s 16 goals for England were scored in competitive games, with only Steve Bloomer scoring more with each goal in competitive games (28 goals, all at home).

Germany

  • Germany has reached at least the semi-finals of the last three European championships. Since the tournament was expanded in 1996, they’ve made at least the last four of the competition every time they hit the knockout stage.
  • Joachim Löw’s team has conceded at least once in each of the last eight games in major tournaments, since the 3-0 win against Slovakia in this phase of the 2016 European Championship. Only once did they have a long series without conceding a goal in major tournaments. which took place in their first nine World Cup games between 1934 and 1954.
  • Ilkay Gündogan scored twice at Wembley Stadium, for Borussia Dortmund in the 2013 Champions League final and for Manchester City in the Premier League. After Per Mertesacker, he could only become the second player to score on the ground for a club and the German national team.