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We see a likely recovery in oil demand in H2 CY21 and CY22 as Covid-19 vaccine delivery gains momentum globally.
This, along with the closure of weaker refining capacity, particularly in Europe (estimated at 1.5 million barrels per day), could also improve refining spreads and margins.
The US agency Energy Information Administration estimates that oil demand will reach 97.5 million bpd in fiscal year 21 and 101.3 million bpd in fiscal year 22, compared to 92.2 million bpd in fiscal year 20.
On the flip side, the International Energy Agency is more cautious and expects oil demand to hit pre-Covid-19 levels by fiscal 23rd.
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Nirmal Bang Oil Gas Sector – Sector Update – March 26, 2021.pdf
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